Duskmourn: The Late Show | Second Main Phase

What The House Recorded

The tape does not lie 17Lands archive

Every other chapter here is expert judgment, recorded before or during the format. This one is the account of what followed. Card tiles throughout carry a win-rate chip: the games-in-hand win rate, meaning how often the player won when that card was in hand or on the battlefield. Set median is 54.8 percent.

Games analyzed

1,011,949

Premier draft, whole format

Average game

8.99

turns. A fast format.

On the play

56.9%

vs 52.1 on the draw

Spread, best to worst

5.3

points across the ten pairs

Colors	Deck	Win rate	Games
WR	Aggro, power two or less	56.9%	140,873
WU	Eerie tempo aggro	56.5%	151,906
UG	Manifest dread	55.5%	117,510
RG	Delirium aggro	55.3%	116,043
BR	Sacrifice	54.9%	83,146
BG	Delirium graveyard	54.3%	81,880
WG	Survival	52.6%	48,718
UR	Rooms	52.1%	52,177
WB	Reanimator	52.0%	54,755
UB	Eerie control	51.7%	40,863

The two Eerie decks finished second and last. White blue Eerie tempo is near the top at 56.5 percent. Blue black Eerie control is dead last at 51.7. Same mechanic, a five point gap, and the difference is entirely whether you are attacking with it or sitting behind it. In a format that ends on turn nine, the grindy version of a value engine never gets paid.

Which Mechanic Actually Pays

Measured, not guessed Median win rate vs the set baseline

Every card with at least two thousand recorded games, bucketed by the mechanic printed on it and compared against the set median of 54.9 percent. Duskmourn gives you six mechanics and they do not point the same way.

Delirium

+2.12

The best of the six. Four card types is easier than it looks here, because manifest dread and self mill are everywhere. 19 cards.

Manifest dread

+1.85

Card selection, graveyard fill, and a body, all on one keyword. It feeds delirium too, which is why the two best mechanics are the two that work together. 25 cards.

Rooms

+0.26

Neutral on the median and the highest variance card type in the set. See below. 22 cards.

Survival

-0.55

Asks your creatures to be tapped in your second main phase, which means attacking into a format full of cheap removal. 13 cards.

Eerie

-1.81

The worst of the six on median, though the split is dramatic: it built the second best deck and the worst one. 15 cards.

Draft the pair that works together. Manifest dread fills your graveyard with different card types, which is precisely what delirium needs. They are the two highest scoring mechanics in the set and they are natural partners. Blue green manifest and red green delirium both finished above the format average on the back of it.

The Rooms Are A Coin Flip

Highest variance in the set 23 Rooms with data

Rooms sit almost exactly on the median as a group, which makes them look unremarkable. They are not. Their standard deviation is 4.79 against 3.45 for every other card in the set, roughly forty percent wider, and they hold both the third best card in the format and the single worst.

Unholy Annex is a 64.7 percent rare at the 99th percentile. Dazzling Theater is a 39.9 percent rare at the 1st, fifteen points below the median and the worst card in Duskmourn by a clear margin. Both are Rooms. Both are rares. The card type tells you nothing.

So evaluate the doors, never the type. Ask what the cheap half actually does on turn two, and whether you will realistically ever pay for the expensive half. A Room whose first door is filler is just an expensive card you will unlock once and lose to.

Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamber — **Unholy Annex**64.7%99th percentile. The best Room by a distance.

Dollmaker's Shop // Porcelain Gallery — **Dollmaker's Shop**62.3%96th percentile.

Roaring Furnace // Steaming Sauna — **Roaring Furnace**60.0%91st percentile. Both halves do real work.

Glassworks // Shattered Yard — **Glassworks**56.8%The best common Room, 73rd percentile.

Walk-In Closet // Forgotten Cellar — **Walk-In Closet**49.8%7th percentile, and a mythic.

Dazzling Theater // Prop Room — **Dazzling Theater**39.9%1st percentile. The worst card in the set.

Six Mechanics

Learn these before you sit down

Manifest dread

Look at the top two cards, put one in the graveyard and the other onto the battlefield face down as a 2/2. Turn it up later for its mana cost if it is a creature.

Far better than old manifest. Selection, graveyard fill, and a body at once.

Delirium

Turns on when there are four or more card types among cards in your graveyard.

The biggest payoffs in the set. Manifest dread, surveil, and looting all feed it, so it is much easier to switch on than it reads.

Rooms

Split enchantments. Cast either half and that half unlocks. Later, at sorcery speed, pay to unlock the other door.

A two for one if you live long enough to unlock both. Judge the cheap half on its own merits first.

Eerie

Triggers when an enchantment enters under your control, and also when you fully unlock a Room.

There are 78 enchantments in the set, so it is easy to turn on. Whether it pays depends entirely on whether your deck is attacking.

Survival

Triggers at the beginning of your second main phase if that creature is tapped.

Rewards attacking, or tapping your own creatures. Almost every Survival creature is white or green.

Impending

On the five Overlord mythics. Cast for less and it enters as a non-creature enchantment, shedding a counter each of your upkeeps until it becomes a creature.

Deploy the enters-the-battlefield effect early, collect the body later, and dodge sorcery speed removal in between.

The Overlords

The best cycle in the set And the one exception

All five Overlords are mythics with Impending. Four of them are among the twelve best cards in the format. The fifth is not, and that gap is worth knowing before you first pick one on faith.

**Overlord of the Mistmoors**68.1%68.1 percent. The best card in the set, full stop.

**Overlord of the Boilerbilges**64.0%98th percentile. The best red card in the format.

**Overlord of the Floodpits**63.1%98th percentile. Evasion plus repeat card draw.

**Overlord of the Balemurk**61.8%96th percentile. Grindy value the black decks want.

Four bombs and a solid card. Overlord of the Hauntwoods is the green one, and at the 69th percentile it is roughly a strong uncommon rather than a format warping mythic. If you open it, take it, but do not treat it as a reason to be in green the way the other four are reasons to be in their colors.

The Ten Decks

Every pair, in finishing order Plans from the guides, results from the archive

Aggro, Power Two Or Less White red56.9%

Curve out and attack, using tricks and removal to force damage through with small creatures. The best deck in a format that ends on turn nine.

Eerie Tempo Aggro White blue56.5%

Cheap creatures plus a high enchantment count, growing the team and attacking. The most drafted deck in the set and nearly the best.

Manifest Dread Blue green55.5%

Manifest repeatedly and convert face down 2/2s into card advantage and bigger bodies. Built on the set's second best mechanic.

Delirium Aggro Red green55.3%

Curve out and attack, with delirium in the mid game pushing the last damage through. The aggressive way to use the best mechanic.

Sacrifice Black red54.9%

Free sacrifice outlets plus bodies that want to die. Drain and grind, and the only black deck to finish above the format average.

Delirium Graveyard Black green54.3%

Self mill card types early, then turn on delirium so removal and bodies overperform. Fine, just slower than the red green version.

Survival Green white52.6%

Get creatures tapped by attacking, or tap them yourself, to bank survival triggers. The mechanic scores below the median and so does the deck.

Rooms Blue red52.1%

Play cheap room halves and unlock the expensive ones later. Asks you to spend mana on doors while the aggressive decks spend it on damage.

Smoky Lounge // Misty Salon — **Smoky Lounge**52.2%

Reanimator White black52.0%

Mill or discard something huge and cheat it back early. When it works it is a blowout, and it does not work often enough.

Eerie Control Blue black51.7%

Survive with cheap fliers and interaction, grind Eerie value into a late finisher. Last of ten. The format ends before the grind pays.

The Scorecard

Four videos vs the archive

10 of 10 correct

The always-draft list

Every card finished above the set median, from the 71st to the 95th percentile, median 89th. A very strong list, and the creator even walked back the word "always" himself.

8 of 10 correct

The never-draft list

Eight land in the bottom quarter, median 15th percentile. Two do not: Commune with Evil is actually the 65th, and Grab the Prize the 28th.

The big miss

The colour ranking

Called green the deepest colour and the best to be in. Green finished fourth of five. White, ranked third, actually finished first.

Called correctly

Black is worst

The one part of the colour ranking that held. Black was placed fifth and finished fifth, and it is the only colour meaningfully off the pace.

Read the colour miss carefully, because it cuts both ways. The whole colour spread is 1.56 points, from white at 55.19 to black at 53.63. Green being "fourth" is not a disaster, it is nearly a tie with second. The real lesson is that colour depth rankings carry almost no signal in this set, while the archetype spread is 5.3 points. Pick the deck, not the colour.

Always Draft These

10 of 10 above the median Commons and uncommons

**Sheltered by Ghosts**61.6%95th percentile, the best of the list. Wants an aggressive deck.

**Unnerving Grasp**60.3%92nd percentile.

**Under the Skin**59.6%89th percentile. Pulls you into green.

**Betrayer's Bargain**57.9%83rd percentile.

**Scorching Dragonfire**57.4%78th percentile. The best common in the set.

**Spineseeker Centipede**57.0%74th percentile.

**Unable to Scream**56.7%71st percentile. Wants a slower deck.

Never Draft These

Eight of ten confirmed In the order the video gave them

**Cackling Slasher**46.5%4th percentile. The worst call on the list, correctly.

**Rampaging Soulrager**49.6%6th percentile.

**Enter the Enigma**50.6%10th percentile.

**Scrabbling Skullcrab**50.8%11th percentile.

**Erratic Apparition**52.7%24th percentile.

Where the list overreached. Commune with Evil finished above the median at the 65th percentile, so calling it unplayable was wrong. Grab the Prize at the 28th is weak rather than unplayable, and the video itself allowed a copy if it comes late. The other eight are all bottom quarter and the advice holds.

The Short Version

If you read nothing else

Be the aggressor. Games end on turn nine. The top two decks attack, the bottom three grind, and the gap is over five points.
Delirium and manifest dread are the mechanics that pay, at plus 2.12 and plus 1.85 on the median, and they feed each other.
Eerie is a deck question, not a card question. The attacking version finished second, the controlling version finished last.
Judge each Room on its cheap half. The type includes the third best card in the set and the very worst one.
Do not force green on the strength of a depth ranking. Colour spread is 1.6 points, archetype spread is 5.3.
Four of the five Overlords are first picks. The green one is only the 69th percentile.