Reality Fracture: The Draft Companion

The Fracture Log

what half a million games say17Lands, 2 to 14 October

Everything else here is judgment, consolidated from four expert videos and verified card by card. This section is the record of what happened once people actually drafted it. Card tiles throughout carry a win-rate chip: the games-in-hand win rate, meaning how often the player won when that card was in hand or in play. Set median is 55.5 percent, so anything above that beat the average card. Mythics and some rares carry a dashed chip instead: 17Lands has not published a rate for them yet because too few games have been played with them in hand.

Games analyzed

491,065

Premier Draft, whole format so far

Set median

55.5%

games-in-hand, 185 rated cards

Two colours

55.0%

vs 53.7 for three. Stay in two

Spread, best to worst

3.7

points across the ten pairs. Narrow

Pair	Deck	Win rate	Games
WU	Fatehold surveil tempo	56.6%	60,219
UB	Theorix self-mill	55.8%	70,179
UR	Chandra's spells noncreature	55.3%	39,938
BG	Garruk's stompy deathtouch + trample	55.3%	33,436
RG	Konstrari Heartwood ramp	55.2%	48,727
GW	Vigorbloom lifegain	54.1%	43,726
BR	Stingerquill noncombat damage	53.7%	32,473
WB	Liliana's attrition recursion	53.6%	19,098
RW	Ajani's go-wide +1/+1 counters	53.4%	19,876
GU	Jace's planeswalkers empower	52.9%	20,753

The single most useful fact in this guide: the surveil deck is first and the Jace deck is last. Empower Jace is the best-scoring mechanic in the set, and blue-green, the pair built entirely around it, finished tenth of ten. A Jace token is a card every three loyalty, which every deck gets for free; the deck that spends turns protecting him gives up the tempo that Fatehold wins with. The whole spread is 3.7 points, so pick the deck in front of you, not the colour. Sultai (blue-black-green, 55.4 percent on 16,852 games) is the one three-colour deck that holds up: Theorix with green fixing and Hapatra.

Which Mechanic Actually Pays

measured, not guessedmedian win rate vs the set baseline

Every rated card bucketed by the mechanic printed on it, median compared with the set median of 55.5 percent. Two mechanics carry the format. One is dead flat. And the set's signature gimmick, the legend in every pack, is a drag.

Empower Jace

+2.05

29 rated cards. The token is a free card every three loyalty, and the cheap empower cards (Mindseeker Oculus, Protege's Awakening) are the best commons in the set.

Surveil

+1.92

33 rated cards. Fixes every draw step and feeds the graveyard decks. It is also the trigger the best deck in the format is built on.

Flashback

+2.71

Only four cards, all above median: Bestial Incursion, Recursive Recruitment, Generous Revival, Twinned Vision. Two uses of one card in a format that grinds.

Prepared

+0.06

19 rated cards, dead on the median. The creature plus a spell is fair, not free: the enter-prepared commons are fine, the re-prepare ones mostly are not.

Legendary creatures

-1.82

49 rated. At rare the legends are fine (58.7 median). At uncommon, 43 of them sit at 53.3 against 57.1 for the ordinary uncommon creatures printed beside them.

Threshold

-1.97

Four rated cards. Seven cards in the yard arrives later than the format does, unless you are the self-mill deck, and then Null Summoner is the exception that wins.

The echoed pair is the trap. Every pack has two versions of one legend, and the pack wants you to take one. Do not, unless it is rare. The uncommon legends are, as a group, the weakest creatures in the set, and the ten worst-performing uncommons are all legends. The table in the Echoed Pairs section below tells you which twin is which.

Learn These First

before you open a pack

Two new mechanics, four returning ones, and the set's structural tricks. Know them cold and the draft is spent reading opponents, not cards.

Empower Jace N new · 35 cardsPut N loyalty counters on a Jace token you control; if you have none, make one first. The token has two abilities: minus one, surveil 1, and minus three, draw a card. No plus ability, so he only ever shrinks. Count him as a card per three loyalty and spend loyalty the turn it arrives.

Prepared returningA creature with a spell printed beside it. While it is on the battlefield and prepared, cast a copy of the spell; doing so unprepares it. Some enter prepared (one use), some re-prepare each upkeep (a spell every turn). Each college has one signature prepared spell shared across several cards.

Heartwood tokens newA red and green artifact that taps for red or green. Soul Tether makes one for three mana. It is ramp, fixing, and an artifact for the artifact payoffs in one token, and it survives a board wipe.

Echoed pairs collationEvery pack contains two versions of the same legend: the character you know and their Echo Verse double. Same first name, different colours and text. In sealed you will see six pairs; the data says most of the uncommon ones are filler.

ThresholdExtra text turns on with seven or more cards in your graveyard. Natural in Theorix, slow everywhere else. Sacrifice, self-mill and cheap spells get you there; a normal deck reaches it around turn eight.

FlashbackCast the spell again from your graveyard for its flashback cost, then exile it. Milling a flashback card is drawing half of it. Four in the set, all good.

Behold a JaceAn alternative cost: show a Jace you control or a Jace card in hand. Countersculpt is a two-mana hard counter with a Jace token out and three mana without. Theorist's Sanctum enters untapped the same way.

Basic landcyclingFive expensive commons (one per colour) that cycle for two mana into any basic. Fixing that costs you nothing, and the white one, Hexhaven Battalion, is also one of the best cards in the set.

The Ways 10 uncommonsLegendary enchantments that empower Jace on entry, then either grant your planeswalkers an extra loyalty ability or trigger whenever you activate one. Treat them as uncommon planeswalkers. Three are excellent (Healer, Paradox, Mind Sculptor); the Pyromancer and the Necromancer are not.

Annexes and Commons dual landsTen common duals, one per pair, that enter untapped if you control a planeswalker. A little over half of packs carry one in the land slot. With a Jace on the table they are untapped duals at common; without one they are taplands, and still fine.

The Charms 5 uncommonsOne per college, three modes each, instant. Konstrari (58.6) and Fatehold (57.8) are premium; Theorix Charm (51.7) is a trap, counter-unless-two-and-shrink is not what that deck needs.

Elder Sphinxes 5 mythicsThe heads of the five colleges, all flying, all gold. Denzilore Fatehold flashes in and grows the team on every surveil; Uldaros Theorix recasts six mana of your graveyard. Build around whichever one you open.

Bombs

take these early, always find roomranked by the record

The twelve highest-rated cards in the set, in order. Note what they are: a four-mana rare, a one-mana equipment, two three-mana green creatures, a dual land. Power in this format is cheap and it comes attached to a body or a card. The seven-mana things are further down.

**Null Summoner**64.4%Reveal their hand, exile the best card, cast it yourself at threshold. The best card in the set at the 99th percentile, in the second-best deck.

**Kindred Judgment**64.0%Name a type, every creature that is not that type dies. Seven mana is fine when you are the only one with a board afterward.

**Lich's Relic**63.3%One mana. Pay two on entry and it is a three-mana kill spell that leaves behind a +2/+1 equipment. 98th percentile.

**Variable Chaser**61.2%A three-mana 2/3 flying prowess that enters prepared with a wheel: both players discard and draw seven. Cast it when you are empty and they are not.

**Hungering Puppetbeast**61.1%Five-mana 5/5 that brings a Heartwood, then eats artifacts for counters and trample, hexproof or haste on demand.

**Vraska, the Cutting Glare**60.6%A three-mana 4/4 deathtouch you hold until six lands, then it destroys any permanent. The expert call that the record agreed with.

**Simulacrum Shaper**60.9%Three-mana 2/2 that ramps a basic onto the battlefield and draws a card when it dies. Nothing flashy, 95th percentile.

**Proctor of Potential**60.4%Two-mana 3/1 that surveils on every creature you play and comes back from the yard for two. Fatehold's engine.

**Repurposed Enforcer**60.3%A two-mana 3/2 that empowers Jace by your creature count every attack. In a wide deck that is a card a turn.

**Lyra, Archangel of Dawn**60.3%Three-mana 3/3 flier that pumps every angel when you gain life. Good alone; absurd in Vigorbloom.

**Sphinx of False Conclusions**60.0%Four-mana flash 4/2 flier that loots on attack and copies itself when it dies. Two bodies and card selection.

**Guiding Hydra**59.6%X plus one. Each combat, move a counter off it onto every other creature. A team pump that grows the longer the game runs.

Rated by the experts, not yet by the record. The mythics below were the videos' headline bombs. 17Lands has not published rates for them, which is normal two weeks in. Draft them on the text; it is good text.

**The Theorist, Jace Beleren**n=407Draws you a card on every opposing draw step, makes a chump blocker, bounces their best thing. Four mana. The face of the set and the best planeswalker in it.

**Garruk, Veiled Butcher**n=424Plus two kills a one-toughness creature, minus two is an edict that leaves you a 4/4, minus three is a three-for-one. Five loyalty for five.

**Ajani Unrelenting**n=437Six mana: minus three sweeps for four, keeping your tokens, and every activation makes a 2/2. Then do it again two turns later.

**Overwrite the Multiverse**n=431Exile every creature, then empower Jace by the body count. A wrath that draws cards afterward.

**Denzilore Fatehold**n=389Four-mana flash 3/4 flier; every surveil puts a counter on your whole team. With a Jace token out that is a pump every turn.

**Uldaros Theorix**n=498Six-mana 5/5 flier that recasts up to six mana of your graveyard for free on entry. The Theorix top end.

**Verdant Kraken**n=492Seven mana, 6/6, a 3/3 land creature on every upkeep including theirs. Answered or the game is over.

**Chandra, Torch of Defiance**n=342Minus three kills a creature, then plus one for a card or two damage every turn. A reprint that still does it all.

**Jace, Reality Sculptor**59.2%The rated one: 59.2 percent. Plus one empowers by your Island count; minus three shuts off attacks for a turn.

**Kwia Vigorbloom**n=311Six mana, 6/6 flying vigilance lifelink ward 2, and every lifegain makes a Lotus that taps for three. Vigorbloom's reason to exist.

**Aerid Konstrari**n=315Four-mana 5/4 flier that brings a Heartwood on entry and death, then grows by your artifact count for six.

**Draconic Visitor**n=421Five-mana 5/5 flier; every artifact token you would make is a 5/5 dragon instead. Heartwoods, Thopters, Lotuses, all dragons.

Scoring the expert top ten. Of the ten bombs the draft videos named, three have a public rate so far. Null Summoner is the best card in the set (99th percentile) and Vraska is 94th: both right. Rise of the Deathbringer finished at the 12th percentile: a five-mana instant that needs you ahead to draw cards or behind to sweep, and the record says it does neither often enough to beat a plain removal spell.

The Five Colleges

the allied pairs, with standingsHexhaven

Each allied pair is a school of Hexhaven, Jace's echo of Strixhaven. Each has a hybrid common, two gold signpost uncommons, a charm, a signature prepared spell and an Elder Sphinx. The standings are from the record; the descriptions tell you how to build them.

Fatehold56.6% · best deck

Surveil tempo · 60,219 games

Play to the board and let surveil fix every draw step. Peer Review makes a body and a surveil, the Jace token's minus one is a repeatable trigger, and the payoffs grow the team or add fliers. Take Desperate Futurescribe and Fatehold Charm over almost anything at uncommon. The common core here (Mindseeker Oculus, Surveillance Phantasm, Fatehold Chronologist, Icy Reception) is the best common core in the format, which is why the deck wins without rares.

Theorix55.8% · second

Self-mill graveyard · most drafted, 70,179 games

Omit Variables mills three for one mana, flashback and threshold cash the yard in, and the best card in the set lives here. Recursive Recruitment flashed back from a stocked yard makes two giants. Cheap defence first: the deck loses the games where it spends turns three and four milling. Skip Theorix Charm (51.7, the weakest charm) and take Break Under Pressure, Rewrite Regrets and the blue tempo commons instead.

Stingerquill53.7% · seventh

Noncombat damage · the signposts failed

The plan is pings: Vicious Verse, Koth's landfall, Extended Absence, then payoffs that want an opponent hurt this turn. The record is blunt about the payoffs: Grim Repriser (51.0), Tomik (50.3), Stingerquill Voxmancer (53.5) and Whiplash Wordsmith (44.7, the worst card in the set) are all under median. Draft black-red as a removal deck with Kiora, Violent Echoes, Break Under Pressure and No Admittance, and treat the ping theme as a bonus, never the reason.

Konstrari55.2% · fifth

Heartwood ramp · big activations

Soul Tether makes a Heartwood that taps for either colour; Heartwood Crafter casts its own on turn two. Ramp into Craftwork Crusher (61.0, the best uncommon in the set), Kiora of Fire and Ashes and Hungering Puppetbeast. Keep the curve honest: the deck loses when it holds three ramp spells and no blocker against the aggressive pairs. Woodwork Prodigy and Konstrari Improviser are below median; the Crafter and the Charm are the enablers worth a pick.

Vigorbloom54.1% · sixth

Lifegain that attacks

Seed Suture is a counter and a life for one mana, and the payoffs grow when you gain. Bloombrute (61.0) turns every lifegain into a card. Prioritise repeatable gain (Greenhouse Propagator, Koth of the Homestead) over one-shot gain, because the engines want a trigger every turn. The pair sits a shade under the format average: it needs Bloombrute, Lyra or Kwia to go over the top, and without one it is a fair creature deck.

The Lorwyn Five

the enemy pairs, with standingsLiliana · Chandra · Garruk · Ajani · Jace

Each enemy pair is named for one of the original five planeswalkers and shares a play style with a neighbouring college. Two of them are good. The Jace deck is not.

Chandra's spells55.3% · third

Noncreature spells · prowess

Flexible: aggressive with prowess bodies or controlling with removal and card draw. Clash of Elements (58.4) is premium removal, Twinned Vision (58.1) is a common that triggers every payoff twice, and Plan for All Outcomes (59.2) removes a permanent and then empowers Jace off every spell you cast. The prowess bodies are the weak link (Chandra's Emberling 50.9): draft the spells first and let the creatures be whichever blue and red bodies are good.

Garruk's stompy55.3% · fourth

Deathtouch and trample · good cards

The least synergistic pair and one of the best: strong removal, big green bodies, Vraska. Hapatra, the Desert Fang (58.4) shrinks their best creature by the biggest card in your yard; Primal Witchstalker (57.6) mills, ramps and attacks with menace. Deathtouch plus trample is the only trick the deck needs. Add blue and it becomes Sultai, the format's one working three-colour deck at 55.4 percent.

Liliana's attrition53.6% · eighth

Recursion without self-mill

Trade card for card, then recur. Generous Revival (59.0) and Twisted Fates (59.1) are the real payoffs; Rank Rat and Gallia fill the yard on the way. The pair finishes under the average because its creatures are small and the format's commons punish small creatures. Lean aggressive with the menace and the counters, play every piece of removal, and splash nothing.

Ajani's go-wide53.4% · ninth

+1/+1 counters · the fastest deck

Flood the board and pump it. The record does not like the pieces: Warrior's Blades 52.8, Gallia the Merrymaker 51.4, Skilled Battlecarver 51.4, Graft Surgeon 48.7, all under median, and the one real payoff, Mabel, Valley Hero, has no public rate yet. Draft it only when the red removal and the white token makers (Hexhaven Battalion, Heartstring Puller) are flowing. The counters theme by itself does not win.

Jace's planeswalkers52.9% · last

Empower Jace · the trap deck

The mechanic is the best in the set and the deck built around it finished last. Protecting a Jace costs tempo, and the payoff, a card every three loyalty, is one every other deck also collects. Kiora of Salt and Sand (52.7) and Tam's Resistance (55.6) do not carry it. If you want planeswalkers, play Mind Meanderer (57.3) and the blue tempo commons inside a Fatehold or Theorix shell and let the Jaces come for free.

Top Commons by Colour

ranked by the record

Ordered by win rate, not by the videos. Blue is the deepest common colour by a distance, which is why both of the top two decks are blue. Where the expert order and the record disagree, the note at the end says so.

White

**Campus Crier**56.7%A two-mana 3/1 that empowers Jace 2 from the graveyard later. Both halves matter.

**Memory Trap**55.6%Exile any nonland permanent for three. The videos' number one; the record says fourth, because they can bounce the enchantment.

**Blossom-Blessed Angel**55.6%A 2/4 flying vigilance that enters prepared with Seed Suture. A fine four and a free counter.

Blue

**Protege's Awakening**58.7%Empower Jace 6 and draw a card for four. Two cards and a surveil-and-draw engine. The second-best common in the set.

**Unsummon**57.7%One mana, bounce a creature. In a tempo format with Jaces to protect, it is removal.

**Surveillance Phantasm**57.4%Two-mana 2/3 flying wall that attacks when you surveil and surveils for four late. Relevant all game.

**Icy Reception**57.3%Counter a creature unless they pay three, or minus five power at instant speed. Pick whichever wins the turn.

Black

**Extended Absence**57.4%Four-mana instant exile for a creature or planeswalker, plus a ping and a life. The premium black common.

**Last Gasp**57.0%Two-mana minus three at instant speed. Kills most of the format's creatures.

**Apex Witchstalker**55.1%A 6/4 menace for six that gains two coming and going, or a basic for two. Black's landcycler.

**Cast Away Doubt**54.5%Draw two, both players take two. Fine in the ping deck, filler elsewhere.

Red

**Awaken the Inferno**57.2%Six damage to a creature or planeswalker plus a counter for five, or a basic for two. Red's landcycler.

**Wrath of the Bloodmane**55.2%Four damage for three, or for two with a legend out. The format has sixty legends.

**Hallway Heckler**54.1%A 2/3 that enters prepared with Vicious Verse and rummages. The one ping common that is fine.

**Heartstring Puller**54.1%Five power across two bodies for four. The red body for the token decks.

Green

**Something Worth Saving**56.5%Mill four, take a permanent, gain a life, at instant speed for two. Card selection that feeds threshold.

**Vinelasher Adept**55.3%Three counters on anything for six, or a basic for two. Green's landcycler.

**Wrecking Gecko**55.0%A five-mana 4/4 with ward 2 and a late-game trample pump. A body the removal struggles with.

Hybrid and colourless

**Fatehold Chronologist**56.9%Two-mana 1/2 flier that enters prepared with Peer Review. A body, a Cadet and a surveil for five total.

**Room of Refuge**56.4%Enters tapped as any colour; late, sacrifice it for two counters. The common fixing that is actually good.

**Murmuring Volume**56.4%Three-mana rock that taps for any colour and rummages for two. Splash insurance for the slow decks.

Where the videos were wrong at common. Memory Trap was called the best white common and sits at the 54th percentile; Surgical Precision and Hexhaven Battalion both beat it. Compel Brutality was called the best green common and finished at the 30th: a bite that needs a creature, in a colour whose creatures are the ones dying. Silence the Echo was called a top-three black common and finished at the 12th: paying three extra or sacrificing a body is not a two-mana kill spell. Everything else on their lists held up.

Uncommons That Punch Up

beyond the signposts

The uncommons that outperform most rares. Three of them are removal spells, two are six-drops that make dragons or draw cards, and none of them is an echoed legend except Kiora.

**Multiply by Zero**58.9%Two-mana instant: the creature is 0/0 until end of turn. A kill spell that ignores counters.

**Your Fate Ends Here**58.6%Kill a creature or planeswalker of three or more mana and surveil. White's instant-speed answer.

**Pia, Determined Rebuilder**58.3%Three mana for a 2/2 and a flying Thopter, then a mana sink that scales with artifacts. A legend worth taking.

**Way of the Healer**58.1%Empower Jace 5 on entry, and every planeswalker gains minus two for a Cadet and a surveil. Four mana for a body a turn.

**Way of the Paradox**57.6%Empower Jace 5, then every activation gains a life and an extra land drop. Konstrari's ramp Way.

**Teyo, Lightshield Expert**57.7%Two-mana flash 1/1 that gives hexproof and a counter, or a loyalty counter to a planeswalker. A trick with a body.

Echoed Pairs

which twin to takeevery pair in the draft pool

Every legend in the set exists twice: the original and the Echo Verse double, with the same first name and different colours. Each pack shows you one pair. The table lists every pair with the higher-rated twin first, the gap between them, and a verdict; a dashed chip means the record has no public rate for that twin yet, and "higher rated" does not mean good: a 52.9 that beats an unrated twin is still a card to leave in the pack. The lesson from the top of the page applies: the rare twins are good, most uncommon twins are not, and the gap inside a pair can be ten points.

Legend	Higher rated twin	Lower rated twin	Gap · verdict
Arni	Humble Scribe 2U · uncommon52.9%	Renowned Champion 3R · uncommonn=133	one rated: below median
Danitha	Spear of Agony 2B · uncommon50.7%	Sword of Hope 2W · uncommonn=370	one rated: below median
Edgar	Moonlit Sovereign 3GG · uncommon49.7%	Ancient Bloodlord WB · uncommonn=372	one rated: below median
Fblthp	Impossibly Lost 1U · uncommon57.3%	Knows the Way XGG · uncommon55.5%	+1.8
Gallia	Tragic Host 1B · uncommon54.0%	the Merrymaker 1R · uncommon51.4%	+2.6
Hapatra	the Desert Fang 2BBG · uncommon58.4%	the Desert Frost 3U · uncommon50.4%	+8.0
Jiang Yanggu	Never Alone 3G · uncommon56.4%	Alone 4R · uncommon53.3%	+3.1
Karn	Argent Defender 2 · raren=18	Gilded Guardian 2/W2/U2/B2/R2/G · raren=55	neither rated yet
Loot	the Nexus 2G · uncommon50.0%	the Anomaly 2B · uncommonn=86	one rated: below median
Lyra	Archangel of Dawn 2W · rare60.3%	Tolarian Archangel 1UU · rare57.8%	+2.5 · take either
Mabel	Bitter Recluse B · uncommon51.1%	Valley Hero 1RW · uncommonn=365	one rated: below median
Marwyn	the Preserver 1G · uncommon55.7%	the Clearcutter R · uncommon55.0%	even
Pia	Determined Rebuilder 2R · uncommon58.3%	Aether Ascetic 2G · uncommonn=180	one rated: fine
Proft	Consulting Detective 1U · uncommon56.4%	Sinister Mastermind 2B · uncommon53.9%	+2.5
Ruric Thar	Magecrusher 5GG · uncommon52.0%	Biomagus 4UU · uncommon51.8%	even · skip both
Saheeli	Consul of Oversight 3WW · uncommon56.2%	Jewel of Avishkar 2UR · uncommon55.2%	+1.0
Samut	Hazoret's Champion 1R · raren=403	Tyrant of Naktamun 1U · raren=94	neither rated yet
Tetsuko Umezawa	Fugitive 1U · uncommon53.2%	Pursuer 3R · uncommon51.1%	+2.1 · skip both
Teyo	Lightshield Expert 1W · uncommon57.7%	Diamondblade Mage 3B · uncommonn=445	one rated: fine
Tomik	Orzhov Lawmage 1W · uncommon54.6%	Izzet Sparkmage 1R · uncommon50.3%	+4.3
Traxos	Academy Guardian 3U · uncommon53.1%	Scourge Eternal 4 · uncommonn=402	one rated: below median
Vraska	the Cutting Glare BBG · rare60.6%	Soul of Stone URW · raren=260	one rated: fine
Winter	Tormented Loner 2B · uncommon53.6%	Team Player 4R · uncommonn=211	one rated: below median
Yargle	Glutton of Urborg 4B · uncommonn=15	Goliath of Otaria 4U · uncommonn=71	neither rated yet
Yoshimaru	Scrappy Stray 1G · uncommon53.1%	Beloved Companion 2W · uncommon51.1%	+2.0 · skip both
Yuriko	Blade of the Mighty 3W · uncommon55.3%	Hope from the Shadows U · uncommon52.2%	+3.1

Three pairs decide more than the rest. Kiora of Fire and Ashes (60.8) against Kiora of Salt and Sand (52.7) is an eight-point gap inside one name. Hapatra, the Desert Fang (58.4) against the Desert Frost (50.4) is eight points the other way. And Lyra is good twice: Archangel of Dawn at 60.3 and Tolarian Archangel at 57.8, the only pair where both twins are first-pick quality.

Traps

what the record says to leave in the pack

The lowest-rated cards with a real sample, plus the cards the videos told you to avoid, scored. Several of these are signposts and one is a charm. Rarity and a gold border are not reasons.

**Whiplash Wordsmith**44.7%44.7 percent, the single worst card in the set. A four-mana 3/3 that needs a ping to be a flier. The videos called it; the record confirmed it.

**Graft Surgeon**48.7%A three-mana 3/3 that passes one counter on when it dies. 1st percentile. Not a payoff, not a body.

**Budding Insurgent**49.5%A 3/3 vigilance for three that can be an artifact kill spell. Reads fine, 1st percentile: the format has nothing worth killing with it.

**Edgar, Moonlit Sovereign**49.7%Five-mana flash 4/4 that grows only on turns you cast nothing. 2nd percentile. The green twin to avoid.

**Loot, the Nexus**50.0%A three-mana 2/1 mana engine that dies to everything. 2nd percentile. Not a fixer.

**Tomik, Izzet Sparkmage**50.3%The ping-doubler signpost. 3rd percentile. Two mana, 1/2, dies to a Cadet.

**Hapatra, the Desert Frost**50.4%A four-mana 4/3 that stuns one creature. 3rd percentile. Her black-green twin is 81st.

**Chandra's Emberling**50.9%A hasty 2/2 that grows per spell. 5th percentile. The spells deck does not want a 2/2 body for three.

**Grim Repriser**51.0%A two-mana prowess 2/2 with a conditional recursion. 5th percentile. The Stingerquill signpost that does not work.

**Skilled Battlecarver**51.4%A 2/1 with first strike on your turn. 9th percentile. Aggro two-drops die to every common in this set.

**Theorix Charm**51.7%Counter-unless-two, minus 2/-2, or mill three and draw. 11th percentile. The only bad charm.

**Silence the Echo**51.7%Destroy a creature for two plus a sacrifice, or for five. 12th percentile. The videos' black top three included it.

**Rise of the Deathbringer**51.8%The expert bomb that was not: 12th percentile. Draw if you are ahead or sweep if behind, five mana, and usually neither.

**Ruric Thar, Biomagus**51.8%Six mana, 4/6 flier with double prowess. 13th percentile. The blue twin; the green one is 14th. Skip both.

**Solve for Disappointment**52.2%Two-mana discard a nonland permanent, empower Jace 1. 16th percentile. Misses instants and top-decked lands alike.

**Titanbones, Towering Heart**51.5%A 4/3 reach that wants lifegain. 11th percentile even in Vigorbloom. The uncommon payoff that is not.

Scoring the never-draft list. Of the ten cards the videos told you to avoid, three have a public rate: Whiplash Wordsmith (0th percentile) and Solve for Disappointment (16th) were right. Sphinx's Approach was wrong: it finished at the 57th percentile, above the median, because draw-two at instant speed is fine when your deck is one blue colour deep. The other seven (Gaul, Living Library, Hexhaven Dueling Arena, Way of the Necromancer, Loot the Anomaly, Arni, Yargle) are played so rarely that no rate exists, which is its own verdict.

Play Around This

what open mana can do to you

Instant-speed effects at common and uncommon, by colour. The format's tricks are modest and its instant removal is not: respect two open black mana and three open red far more than a single green.

White

Your Fate Ends Here (3): instant, destroy a creature or planeswalker of mana value three or more.
Prophesied End (2): destroy a creature; if it was not attacking they draw. Attack into it.
Teyo, Lightshield Expert (2): flash, hexproof and a counter on their creature in response to your removal.
Charge the Sanctum (3, hybrid with red): team +2/+0, or +2/+0 first strike and a counter on one.
Fatehold Charm (WU): team +1/+2, or bounce a spell or creature.

Blue

Icy Reception (2): counter a creature unless they pay three, or minus five power on a blocker or attacker.
Unsummon (1): bounce. The counter you put on their creature was a waste.
Countersculpt (UU with a Jace out): hard counter. Two open blue and a Jace token means it.
Perfected Theory (1): a creature becomes 1/1 or 4/5 base. Works both ways on prowess.
Divining Duelist (3): flash 3/2 that taps or untaps a creature. The ambush blocker.
Yuriko, Hope from the Shadows (1): flash, minus X power where X is their graveyard. Late it is minus eight.

Black

Last Gasp (2): minus three. The most common answer in the format.
Multiply by Zero (2): 0/0 until end of turn. Counters do not save it.
Extended Absence (4): exile a creature or planeswalker at instant speed.
Break Under Pressure (3): they sacrifice their biggest thing. Hexproof does not help.
Proft, Sinister Mastermind: discarded from hand for one black, minus 3/-1 to a creature.
Teyo, Diamondblade Mage (4): flash deathtouch on a blocker.

Red

Violent Echoes (4): six damage to a creature or planeswalker at instant speed.
Wrath of the Bloodmane (3, or 2 with a legend): four damage.
Fulminous Forte (3): five to one thing, or one to everything of theirs. Tokens beware.
Blazing Crescendo (2): +3/+1 and an impulse draw. The only real red pump.
Stingerquill Charm (BR): three damage anywhere, or first strike plus deathtouch.
No Admittance is a sorcery: two red mana open on their turn is Wrath or Crescendo, not this.

Green

Tethermage's Advantage (1): +2/+2, reach, untap. One green mana is a trick.
Compel Brutality (2): a creature or a planeswalker bites for its power or loyalty.
Konstrari Charm (RG): two counters and trample, or six damage to a flier.
Vigorbloom Charm (GW): hexproof and indestructible, or a counter and a fight.
Ferocity of the Hunt (2, hybrid with black): flash aura, +1/+0 and deathtouch, and the creature returns when it dies.
Edgar, Moonlit Sovereign (5): a flash 4/4 blocker. Bad card, real block.

Mana and Splashes

fixing, and how much to use

The fixing is unusually good for a modern set and the record still says stay in two colours: two-colour decks won 55.0 percent, three-colour 53.7. Splash one bomb off the free fixing below. Do not splash a removal spell.

**Shipwreck Marsh**60.9%The rare blue-black slowland: 60.9 percent, 96th percentile. A dual land with the best deck's colours on it.

**Theorist's Sanctum**57.3%An Island that enters untapped if you behold a Jace, and empowers Jace 2 for three mana late. Free in any blue deck.

**Fblthp, Knows the Way**55.5%X green green: fetch X basics of different names to hand. Domain fixing for the deck that wants three colours anyway.

**Fatehold Annex**55.5%One of the ten common duals. Untapped with a planeswalker out, a tapland without. All ten sit between 54 and 56 percent: playable, never exciting.

Loot, the Nexus is not fixing. A 2/1 that dies to every ping in the set cannot be your splash source. Use the Rooms, the cyclers and the Volume, and count a common dual as half a source until a Jace is on the table.

Build and Play

the checklist

Sealed build, in order

Sort as you open: colour, then mana value, commons apart from the rest. The gold uncommons tell you which college your pool belongs to.
Find the bombs first: an Elder Sphinx, a planeswalker, Null Summoner, Lich's Relic, Vraska. A pool with one of those builds itself around it.
Count the removal in each colour. Black and red have the instant-speed answers; white has Surgical Precision and Memory Trap; blue has bounce and counters. Two colours with six or more real answers is a deck.
Ignore the uncommon legends when counting playables. Take the ones above median from the pairs table and treat the rest as filler. A pool with six legends is not a pool with six good cards.
Prefer the empower cards over the prepared cards at equal cost. Mindseeker Oculus and Protege's Awakening over Semester Foreseer and Theorix Metamage, every time.
Seventeen lands, and the duals you own. The common duals are fine taplands; with any Jace maker in the deck they are better than that. Splash one bomb off a cycler, a Room and a basic, nothing more.
Sixteen creatures is too many here. Thirteen to fifteen bodies plus the token makers (Battalion, Peer Review, Recruitment) and five to seven spells is the shape the winning decks took.

Playing the turn

Spend Jace's loyalty the turn it arrives. Minus three for the card, or minus one for the surveil that triggers your team. A six-loyalty Jace left sitting is a free kill for Extended Absence or Clash of Elements.
Attack the player, not the Jace, unless the Jace is one activation from a card. A two-loyalty token is a surveil; your three damage to the face is three damage.
Surveil before combat when you have a Fatehold payoff: Desperate Futurescribe and Prudent Fateseer check whether you surveilled this turn, not this phase.
Cast the prepared spell before the creature dies. It is a copy from exile, free to cast as long as the body is on the table and prepared. Dying unprepared wastes half the card.
Sequence the duals. An Annex before your empower spell enters tapped; after it, untapped. Play the Jace maker first when you can.
Hold Countersculpt mana only with a Jace out. Without one it costs three, and the format rewards tapping out on curve more than holding a counter.
Mill with intent in Theorix. Omit Variables on turn two is a wasted turn against the aggressive pairs; mill when the turn is otherwise idle or when threshold turns a card on.