Avatar: The Draft Chronicle | Second Main Phase

The Chronicle

what the record shows17Lands archive

Everything else in this guide is expert judgment recorded before or during the format. This section is the record of what happened. Card tiles throughout carry a win-rate chip: the games-in-hand win rate, meaning how often the player won when that card was in hand or on the battlefield. Set median is 56.0 percent, so anything above it beat the average card.

Games analyzed

562,924

Premier draft, whole format

On the play

59.1%

vs 52.9 on the draw

Play advantage

+6.1

points. Tempo decides games.

Average game

9.2

turns. Quick.

Pair	Path	Win rate	Games
GW	Allies	57.3%	48,826
RW	Go-wide firebending	57.3%	47,614
WU	Flyers	57.1%	77,050
UR	Lessons tempo	56.8%	51,090
UB	Draw-two control	56.6%	62,087
BG	Counters	56.1%	28,601
WB	Sacrifice	55.9%	36,035
RG	Power four matters	55.5%	25,804
UG	Lessons ramp	55.1%	28,945
BR	Firebending aggro	54.0%	27,141

Only 3.3 percentage points separate the best pair from the worst. For comparison, the previous set we measured spread nearly seven points and had two decks under 51 percent. Here every single pair is a winning deck. That vindicates the prerelease advice not to treat color pairs as blueprints: pick your bombs, then let the pair follow. Two riders, though. White appears in the top three pairs, so it is the color to be in when the seat is open. And with a plus-six-point play advantage and nine-turn games, tempo matters more here than in any format in this series.

The Four Arts

one mechanic per element

The set's elegant conceit: each bending discipline is a real mechanic with its own colors and its own play pattern. Learn all four before you sit down, because three of them create costs and timings that do not exist in other sets.

Airbending Air · WhiteExile a nonland permanent; its owner may later recast it for two generic. Read each card, because some only target your permanents. Use it to dodge removal, re-trigger your own entry abilities, or clear a blocker, but remember their entry triggers refire too.

Waterbending Water · BlueConvoke and improvise fused: pay the generic cost by tapping creatures and artifacts. With enough bodies you pay without tapping a land, and the card with the ability usually taps itself, so it is a discount that grows with your board.

Earthbending Earth · GreenPut counters on a land, making it a 0/0 haste creature that is still a land. The failsafe is what makes it safe: if it dies or is exiled it returns tapped as a normal land. Bounce and shuffle effects, however, take the land for good.

Firebending Fire · Red and BlackWhen the creature attacks, add that much red mana until end of combat. It rewards decks that attack every turn. Decide before you attack what the mana will buy, and if the trick was not needed, dump it in the end-of-combat step.

Lessons subtypeAn instant and sorcery subtype returning from Strixhaven, but with no learn cards. They are simply maindeck spells, and they are dramatically stronger this time. Several cards count them in your graveyard.

Allies creature typeThe set's second most important creature type after Human, with support in every color. Free upside on cards you already wanted.

Clue tokens the connective tissueThe quiet MVP. Tap a clue to pay a waterbending cost and then sacrifice it to draw, because tapping is not part of the sacrifice cost. They also feed sacrifice payoffs and turn on draw-your-second-card triggers.

Exhaust once per gameAn ability usable only once, letting a cheap early creature convert into a late-game mana sink.

The Avatar Cycle

legend on one side, Avatar on the otherSeven of eight are elite

Five past Avatars, one per color, each a legend that transforms into the Avatar, plus three tellings of Aang. As a group these are among the strongest cards in the set: seven of the eight sit between the 87th and 99th percentile. The eighth is the interesting one.

The Rise of Sozin — 67.2%A wrath that then snipes their best card and flips into a game-ender. The 99th percentile, and the best card in the whole cycle.

Fire Lord Sozin — 67.2%A wrath that then snipes their best card and flips into a game-ender. The 99th percentile, and the best card in the whole cycle.

The Legend of Kuruk — 66.7%Also 99th percentile. The blue entry in the cycle and a quiet monster.

The Legend of Yangchen — 66.2%The air nomad, at the 98th percentile.

Aang, Swift Savior — 65.4%The best of the three Aangs by a distance, at the 97th percentile.

Aang and La, Ocean's Fury — 65.4%The best of the three Aangs by a distance, at the 97th percentile.

The Legend of Roku — 63.5%Fire's entry, at the 95th percentile.

Aang, at the Crossroads — 61.8%The three-color Aang, still comfortably elite at the 92nd percentile.

Aang, Destined Savior — 61.8%The three-color Aang, still comfortably elite at the 92nd percentile.

The Legend of Kyoshi — 60.2%Earth's entry and the weakest of the five past Avatars, though still well above median.

Aang, Master of Elements — 54.2%The set's marquee mythic, and the one card here that underperforms badly. Four colors to cast and all four elements to flip is a wish, not a plan. Play the front side as a value creature or leave it in the binder.

Bombs

take on sightChips are real win rates

The expert countdown, shown in their order. Every one is genuinely strong, all ten above the 78th percentile. But the order needs correcting, and the correction is at the top: the cards ranked one and two are the two weakest of the group.

**The Mechanist, Aerial Artisan**59.6%A clue on every noncreature spell, and it turns artifact tokens into 3/1 fliers. Kill it on sight.

**Ozai, the Phoenix King**59.0%7/7 trample haste with firebending that keeps the mana, gaining flying and indestructible with six unspent.

**The Earth King**65.4%A 4/4 plus a 2/2 for four, then ramps and fixes whenever your big creatures attack. The tape says this is the real number one.

**Wan Shi Tong, Librarian**65.9%Flash flying vigilance that draws on entry and keeps drawing whenever an opponent searches. The 98th percentile.

**United Front**65.3%Scales from a fine two-mana play to a game-ender, making an army and pumping the board in one card.

**Bumi, Unleashed**64.2%Nine power and toughness of trample for five mana, and connecting untaps your lands for an extra combat.

**The Unagi of Kyoshi Island**60.6%Flash 5/5 with ward that ambushes attackers and is punishing to remove.

**Obsessive Pursuit**59.3%A clue every upkeep, and sacrificing permanents pumps an attacker with counters and lifelink.

**Ran and Shaw**58.6%A fine flier alone, but with three Lessons in the yard it copies itself. Needs the deck built for it.

**Katara, Water Tribe's Hope**62.1%Makes your whole team a base X/X on your turn. Survive one turn and it usually ends the game.

Reordered by the record: The Earth King, Wan Shi Tong, United Front, and Bumi all sit in the 95th percentile or better, ahead of the two cards ranked above them. Ran and Shaw is the most conditional of the ten, and its 78th percentile reflects a card that is spectacular in a lessons deck and ordinary elsewhere. If you first-pick it, spend the rest of the draft taking lessons.

The Ten Paths

every pair is a winning deckStandings from real games

Unusually, there is no wrong lane here. The descriptions tell you how each deck wants to be built; the standings tell you how little the choice costs you.

Allies57.3% · best

Kindred go-wide

Curve out with allies and lean on lords and entry triggers to snowball the board. Token generation doubles as counter and earthbending fuel. Allies appear in every color, so this deck happily splashes.

Go-wide firebending57.3% · best

Creature count matters

Flood the board with cheap creatures and convert raw creature count into damage, mana, and removal. The payoffs scale directly off how many bodies you have, and firebending turns each attack into fuel.

Team Avatar55.3%

Flyers57.1% · most drafted

Evasion plus airbending

An evasive air force with buffs, clues, and loot effects keeping cards flowing. Do not tunnel on the keyword: the pair also holds airbending and waterbending, so token generators and strong entry creatures are at a premium.

Lessons tempo56.8%

Spells matter

The highest density of lessons you are genuinely happy to play. Fill deck and graveyard with instants and sorceries to grow spell-count payoffs and discount your top end, then close with a big finisher.

Draw-two control56.6%

Second card each turn

Removal and card draw triggering payoffs that reward drawing your second card each turn, which can fire on both players' turns. Clues are the natural enabler. Grindy, so take enough interaction to reach the point where advantage takes over.

Counters56.1%

Earthbend and grow

Accumulate counters across creatures and earthbended lands, then cash them in for drain and lifegain. Spread the counters wide rather than stacking them when your payoffs count creatures. It borrows heavily from the sacrifice package, so Abzan is often the better deck.

Sacrifice55.9%

Bodies into value

Generate expendable bodies and clues, then sacrifice them repeatedly for value, counters, and drain. White contributes little on that axis directly, so lean on cheap creatures with useful entry and death triggers.

Power four matters55.5%

Earthbend ramp

Deploy or manufacture creatures with power four or greater to switch on cost reduction, card draw, and evasion. Earthbending gives you a hasty four-power body on demand, and you can stack multiple activations on one land to cross the line.

Lessons ramp55.1%

Fix, ramp, go big

Ramp and fix with creature-mana, cast a high density of lessons to stock the graveyard, then deploy oversized payoffs. The fixing here is good enough that greedy four and even five color builds are genuinely castable.

Firebending aggro54.0% · last

Attack every turn

Attack relentlessly so the combat mana fuels abilities and instants, then close with raid threats. It is last of the ten, and the reason is structural: firebending only pays when you are attacking, so a stumble costs you both the damage and the mana.

Always Draft These

the reliables10 for 10, no misses

The cleanest prediction in the whole guide: every card on this list landed between the 78th and 92nd percentile. Cheap flexible interaction and bodies that generate a second resource are how you win a tempo format.

**Invasion Submersible**62.2%Bounces any nonland permanent, then exhausts into a 3/3. It taps itself toward the waterbend cost, so it often needs only two more.

**Aang, the Last Airbender**61.5%Airbends on entry for tempo or to re-buy your own triggers, and any lesson gives it lifelink for a six-point swing.

**Earth Kingdom Jailer**61.2%Exiles their best permanent until it leaves. Hold it back out of combat so they cannot trade to get it back.

**Heartless Act**60.1%Two-mana instant kill on anything without counters, with a counter-removal mode that answers earthbended lands. Splashes easily.

**The Cave of Two Lovers**60.1%Two tokens, then a tutored land, then a hasty 3/3. A mountain of value from one card.

**Water Tribe Rallier**59.7%Digs four deep and taps itself toward the cost, so it snowballs as your board grows.

**Iroh's Demonstration**59.3%Two-mana modal removal dealing four, killing four- and five-drops, with a sweeper mode against tokens.

**Firebending Lesson**58.7%One mana deal two, kicked deal five, never dead. Critically it is a LESSON for the graveyard payoffs.

Top Commons

ranked by color

White

**Airbending Lesson**57.4%Protects your permanents, resets entry triggers, or blows out a trick, and it replaces itself while being a lesson.

**Path to Redemption**57.8%Efficient lockdown that upgrades to exile, but they can airbend the creature to shed the aura entirely.

Blue

**Forecasting Fortune Teller**57.9%Two permanents from one card, both of which tap toward waterbend before the clue is cashed.

**Rowdy Snowballers**51.9%Taps and stuns, which is how you deny a firebender its attack trigger.

**Lost Days**58.9%Uniquely answers earthbended lands for good, since they neither die nor get exiled.

Black

**Sold Out**57.0%Instant exile that also makes a clue if the creature was damaged, so chump-blocking first converts bodies into cards.

**Callous Inspector**55.6%Menace one-drop that leaves a clue when it dies. Ideal fodder and a fine counter target.

**Deadly Precision**56.8%Destroy a creature for one black if you sacrifice something. Removal that doubles as a sac outlet.

Red

**Lightning Strike**57.5%Two mana, three damage, any target. Measure every creature's toughness against it.

**Deserter's Disciple**54.3%Fine on curve and stays relevant by making a small creature unblockable forever.

Green

**Rocky Rebuke**56.9%Two-mana instant fight-style removal, about the best green gets at common.

**Ostrich-Horse**57.5%Mills three and takes a land, replacing itself, or becomes a 4/2 if you would rather have stats.

**Rebellious Captives**55.8%Exhaust adds counters AND earthbends, spreading four extra stats so it never goes dead late.

Never Draft These

the traps14 for 14, all below the 27th

A clean sweep. Every card flagged as a trap landed below the 27th percentile, and most below the 11th. That includes the entire shrine cycle, which the guides warned is a five-color build with one shrine per color, a legend-rule cap of five, and sixteen total mana to get there. The three worst cards on this page are also three of the worst in the set.

**Trusty Boomerang**45.8%It returns to hand on use, so tapping one creature costs three mana every single turn. Bottom of the set.

**Destined Confrontation**46.3%A symmetrical wipe where each player KEEPS their best creatures. White wants to go wide, so it usually hurts you more.

**Fatal Fissure**46.5%Needs a targeted creature to die that turn, so it wants setup many black decks do not have.

**Zuko's Exile**48.9%Five mana is far too inefficient for removal, and you hand the controller a clue as compensation.

**Kyoshi Island Plaza**49.2%The shrine cycle in one card: uncommon, one per color, and you must draw multiples to be paid.

**Honest Work**50.9%Shrinking a creature to a 1/1 also turns it into a MANA creature, handing them ramp and a chump blocker.

**Southern Air Temple**51.4%Another shrine, and the one that also pushes an aggressive plan while the shrine deck is inherently slow.

**Vengeful Villagers**51.7%A four-mana 3/3 dies to a common two-mana burn spell, and it only triggers on attack.

**Ember Island Production**52.2%At five mana it does nothing unless you already have a creature worth copying.

**The Spirit Oasis**52.3%Shrine three. The payoff needs several uncommons across colors drawn in the same game.

**Northern Air Temple**52.4%Shrine four. Worth knowing one trick: replaying a duplicate triggers both before the legend rule resolves.

**Foggy Swamp Hunters**53.1%Its bonuses need two cards drawn that turn, and on those turns you have better things to do.

The one nuance: Crescent Island Temple and Dai Li Indoctrination landed in the mid-twenties rather than the basement, so they are merely weak rather than unplayable. And if you genuinely open four or five shrines, the deck exists. Just do not draft toward it on speculation.

The Monocolor Question

half validated

The prerelease guidance said every color has a busted monocolor uncommon payoff, and that a mono deck is a genuinely viable build. The record only half agrees. White and black got real payoffs. The other three did not, and blue's is the one most likely to disappoint you.

**Gather the White Lotus**57.9%An Ally per Plains plus scry. The best of the five, and it goes truly wild alongside Energybending.

**Cat-Gator**57.7%A bad rate for the body, but the entry damage equal to your Swamps, gained straight back, delivers.

**Rockalanche**55.1%A big creature twice for little mana, but it landed below the set median.

**Waterbending Scroll**54.4%A powerful engine on paper once four Islands cut the activation, yet only the 32nd percentile in practice.

**Solstice Revelations**52.7%The high-variance one, and the record is unkind: the 16th percentile.

Team-Ups

two-card combos

With the Saga's final chapter on the stack, airbend your own Cave to exile it instead of sacrificing it, then recast for two. You bank the payoff and run the whole Saga again.

Steal their creature hasty, swing with it, then sacrifice it before it goes home. A threaten effect becomes hard removal plus a clue.

Energybending gives your lands every basic type, so every land counts as a Plains. Seven mana becomes seven tokens, and being an instant, firebending mana can do it early.

Sacrifice the Ally token to June for a clue, crack clues to draw, connect with an unblockable June, and Tolls of War replaces the token. Self-sustaining.

Land-cycle the Crawler early for fixing, then kick Conviction at instant speed to put a 6/6 straight onto the battlefield.

Watery Grasp stops a creature untapping but does not tap it, which is the trap. The Snowballers' entry taps it, locking it down for good.

Attacking with Appa airbends your own permanent, so blink Cat-Gator to reuse its entry every turn while Appa hits for four.

Double strike plus a pump on a 2/2 is twelve damage from nowhere. Deploy it the turn they tap out.

Play Around This

open mana is a threat

White

Enter the Avatar State: ONE mana for flying, first strike, lifelink AND hexproof. The format's biggest blowout.
Fancy Footwork: pumps two creatures and untaps them, so a tapped board still blocks
Yip Yip!: the baseline one-mana pump. Respect it on every close block.

Blue

Octopus Form: a pump, hexproof, AND an untap. A trick and a removal dodge in one.
Rowdy Snowballers: taps and stuns, often timed to deny a firebending attack trigger

Black

Azula Always Lies: kills an X/1 AND wins an unrelated combat, for two mana
Sold Out: instant exile that pays them a clue if you damaged the creature first

Red

Cunning Maneuver: a pump that makes a clue, so it replaces itself and gets cast freely
How to Start a Riot: a mass pump. Always price it in when a wide board attacks.
Lightning Strike: three damage to any target, including your face at the end

Green

Pillar Launch: a pump with REACH and an untap. It punishes attacks into open green, flyers included.
Origin of Metalbending: a counter plus indestructible, beating damage removal and combat at once

Habits worth keeping

Firebending mana expires at end of combat. Know what it buys before you attack.
Tap clues to waterbend first, then sacrifice them for cards
Hold a spare land late as insurance against black's discard

Build and Play

the checklist

Sealed build, in order

Sort as you open: by color, commons apart from the rest, then by mana value so each color's curve reads at a glance.
Measure the pool by its bombs first and let them dictate your colors. Many of the best cards are buildarounds that improve as the rest of the deck plays into them.
Do not treat color pairs as blueprints. The standings back this up: every pair is a winning deck, and the pair identities apply outside their intended lane.
Favor white when the seat is open, since it appears in the top three pairs.
Do not shave to sixteen lands. With firebending, waterbend costs, exhaust, and land-cycling, flooding is far less punishing than usual.
Consider Abzan over straight white-black or black-green: the sacrifice and counters packages overlap that much.

Playing the turn

Be the aggressor. A six-point play advantage and nine-turn games mean tempo decides more here than card advantage does.
Clues are mana. Tap them for waterbending, then sacrifice them for cards. It is not a choice; it is a sequence.
Earthbend the land you least need to tap that turn, and prefer the sacrifice-to-draw duals since the failsafe returns them.
Airbend your own permanents to dodge removal or re-trigger entries, but remember their entry triggers refire when you point it at them.
Spread counters wide rather than stacking them when your payoffs count creatures.
Open a build-around and commit: take its enablers over raw power for the rest of the draft.